To the observant eye, it’s increasingly clear that Nawaf Salam’s relationship to President Aoun is being redrawn after each confrontation with Hezbollah.
By the group’s own standards, the events at Raouche last Thursday are an embarrassment to Hezbollah. Remembering Hassan Nasrallah in such a reductive, forced manner should have been the story on Thursday evening.
Instead, Hezbollah came out as the successful defiant of Nawaf Salam and caused him to collide with the President and his allies in the security apparatus.
Joseph Aoun is a military man who appointed close allies to security positions: Defense Ministry & Army Command. He best understands the risks of civil unrest and the limitations of the Lebanese army.
But his calculus validates (and accepts) Hezbollah’s equation: threatening civil peace if red lines are crossed.
Nawaf Salam is a statesman who believes that practicing state authority and enforcing the rule of law vis-\u00e0-vis Hezbollah not only shouldn’t be sacrificed for the sake of managing sensitive dynamics, but are the crucial measure of the state’s success.
Here’s where the divergence gets leveraged by Hezbollah: organize chaos that Aoun is willing to tolerate and Salam is certain to reject. This draws out contrasted reactions by the two, who then grow frustrated with one another and lose coordination.
On the local politics level, Hezbollah’s margins of maneuvering exist in the increasingly widening space offered by the differing positionalities of Aoun and Salam. Tactical errors and miscommunication between Salam and Aoun are force-multiplying the effectiveness of this strategy.
The parallel game of optics and murky politics Hezbollah is playing should be clear to all. Lebanon’s leaders should develop immunity to those tactics.
Nawaf Salam is Hezbollah’s worst-case scenario. But without the backing of the state and its security forces, his escalation backfires to his own detriment.
At the very least, Nawaf Salam should have the full backing of the state and its President – even when he makes tactical errors. At best, Nawaf Salam and Joseph Aoun can find a way to work together as natural allies with much in common.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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