Ali Larijani was killed in an IDF strike ordered by Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Tuesday. As the head of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, he oversaw the Islamic Republic’s defense, intelligence, and foreign policy. He was also the second highest ranking role in the Iranian regime, but perhaps currently its most valuable.
Iran’s regime is designed to survive the succession of one Supreme Leader to another. The head of power in Iran’s hierarchy holds authority, legitimacy, and symbolism.
Things that can be passed on.
That’s precisely why the system was able to absorb the shock, activate its succession mechanisms, and move on after the assassination of Ali Khamenei on day one of the war.
Succession is what the regime was built for.
What it is not built to easily survive is the loss of the people who actually make it function. People who understand the many moving parts that make the regime function, and has the authority to check and balance Iran’s institutions and factions.
He was not a figurehead. He was an operator -the operator. A central node linking political leadership, security agencies, and execution on the ground. He’s the kind of figure who cannot be replaced by simply appointing another man to the job.
His assassination is either designed to open the position for someone willing to quietly concede, or cripple the regime and ensure its eventual capitulation.